Arc Fault and Electrical Fire
Risk Cognition Whitepaper

From Arc Fault Detection to Risk Intelligence Cognition

FEXLINK · July 2026

FEXLINK the Power.

Fire is not a single point, but a chain.

Accidents are results, hazards are processes, risks are the essence.

Arcs are phenomena, hazards are the essence, fires are results.

AFDD addresses dangerous arc detection, while Risk Intelligence targets risk cognition and accident prediction.

FIGURE 0-1

Five-Generation Evolution Model of Electrical Safety

Cognitive Upgrade from Overcurrent Protection to Risk Intelligence

Figure 0-1
Five-Generation Evolution Model of Electrical Safety
Ⅰ
Basic Protection · Protection
Fuse · Late 19th - Early 20th Century
Protection Target: Lines and Equipment | Value Center: Overcurrent Protection
Ⅱ
Circuit Protection · Circuit Protection
MCB / MCCB · Circuit Breaker · Mid-20th Century
Protection Target: Circuits | Value Center: Short Circuit and Overload Protection
Ⅲ
Leakage Protection · Leakage Protection
RCD / RCBO · Residual Current Device · Late 20th Century
Protection Target: Personal Safety | Value Center: Electric Shock and Ground Fault Protection
Ⅳ
Arc Protection · Arc Protection
AFCI / AFDD · Early 21st Century - Present
Protection Target: Arc Faults | Value Center: Arc Fault Detection and Protection
Ⅴ
Risk Intelligence · Risk Intelligence
Multi-Source Sensing + Risk Model + Accident Prediction · Now Opening
Protection Target: Complete Risk Chain (Full RHAF) | Value Center: Risk Cognition and Accident Prevention
Figure Description：The development of electrical safety is essentially a development process of continuously improving risk cognition capabilities. Each protection technology upgrade represents the industry's identification and management of new risk objects. Currently, we are in the transition period from the fourth generation (arc protection) to the fifth generation (risk intelligence) - AFDD is an important milestone, but Risk Intelligence represents the next stage.
FIGURE 5-1 · CORE

RHAF Four-Layer Model Overview

Core Theoretical Framework · Risk Source → Hazard → Arc Exposure → Fire

Core Judgment of This Chapter：The RHAF model is closer to the essence of electrical fires than a pure arc model; it uniformly explains the complete evolution relationship from risk source, hazard, arc exposure to fire.
Figure 5-1
RHAF Four-Layer Model Overview
L1
Risk Source · Risk Source
Root Cause Layer · Root Cause Layer
Fundamental factors leading to system risk formation: design defects, installation defects, material degradation, environmental influences, operational pressure, insufficient maintenance
Governance
Avoid risk formation at the source
↓ Long-term action of risk source
L2
Hazard · Hazard
Process Layer · Process Layer
Specific risk states formed after risk source action: terminal looseness, contact degradation, insulation aging, local temperature rise, equipment aging, surface contamination
Identification
Discover risks at the hazard stage
↓ Hazard develops to a certain stage
L3
Arc Exposure · Arc Exposure
Signal Layer · Signal Layer
Risk signals exposed through discharge forms: micro-discharge, intermittent arc, continuous arc, surface discharge, series arc, parallel arc
Detection
AFDD Action Layer
↓ Arc continues and conditions are met
L4
Fire · Fire
Result Layer · Result Layer
Final loss-of-control state after risk continues to accumulate and breaks through safety boundaries: material carbonization, ignition condition formation, combustion spread
Prevention
Prevent before results form

AFDD acts on: Layer 3 (Arc Exposure Layer)

Risk Intelligence acts on: Layer 1 → Layer 2 → Layer 3 → Layer 4 Full Chain

Ideal Intervention Point: Layer 1 and Layer 2 (earlier intervention means lower cost and better results)

Figure Description：The RHAF model divides electrical fire risk into four layers from root cause to result. AFDD mainly acts on the third layer (arc exposure), while true risk governance needs to cover the full chain - the ideal intervention point should be at the risk source and hazard layers, where earlier intervention means lower cost and better results. This model is the most core theoretical framework of this book.
FIGURE 6-1

Five-Level Capability Model

Capability Upgrade Path from Sensing to Prediction

Figure 6-1
Five-Level Capability Model · Sense → Identify → Explain → Assess → Predict
L5 Predict Prediction Judge future risks
L4 Assess Assessment Quantify risk levels
L3 Explain Interpretation Understand anomaly sources
L2 Identification Detection Identify
L1 Sense Perception Acquire multi-source data

AFDD Main Coverage

Level 1 Sensing + Level 2 Identification
Current overall industry stage

Risk Intelligence Coverage

Level 1 → Level 5 Full Stack
Next-generation system core value zone

Figure Description：The bottom-up upgrade of the five-level capability corresponds to the leap from "seeing" to "understanding" to "judging". AFDD mainly covers Level 1-2, while risk intelligence covers the full Level 1-5 stack. The higher you go, the scarcer the capability, the higher the value, and the stronger the barrier. The industry as a whole is currently in the transition stage from Level 2 to Level 3.
FIGURE 1-1

Electrical Fire Risk Evolution Chain

Fire is not a sudden isolated event, but the final result of long-term risk evolution

Figure 1-1
Electrical Fire Risk Evolution Chain
Connection Degradation
→
Contact Resistance Increase
→
Local Temperature Rise
→
Insulation Degradation
→
Partial Discharge
→
Arc Fault
→
Material Carbonization
→
Ignition Condition Formation
→
Electrical Fire
Connection Degradation Typical Duration: Months to Years [To be supplemented]
Contact Resistance Increase Weeks to Months · Observable: Temperature Rise, Voltage Drop
Local Temperature Rise Weeks to Months · Observable: Infrared Thermometry
Insulation Degradation Months to Years · Observable: Leakage Current
Partial Discharge Days to Months · Observable: High-Frequency Signal
Arc Fault Minutes to Weeks · Observable: AFDD
Material Carbonization Minutes to Hours · Observable: Odor
Ignition Condition Formation Seconds to Minutes · Observable: Smoke
Electrical Fire —— · Final Result
Figure Description：Fire is not a sudden isolated event, but the final result of long-term risk evolution. From connection degradation to fire formation, the chain may span months or even years. Each preceding stage is an intervention opportunity, and earlier intervention means lower cost. The color gradient from blue (early stage) to red (danger) to black (fire) visually presents the risk escalation process.
FIGURE 4-1

Fault Thinking vs Risk Thinking

Electrical Safety Must Complete a Cognitive Upgrade

Figure 4-1
Fault Thinking vs Risk Thinking

Fault Thinking · Fault Thinking

  • Logic: Discover → Handle → End
  • Time Scale: Focus on the present
  • Focus Point: What happened
  • Emphasis: Action
  • Suitable for: Clear, instantaneous, well-bounded faults
  • Typical: Short circuit, overcurrent

Risk Thinking · Risk Thinking

  • Logic: Discover → Understand → Assess → Trend → Early Intervention
  • Time Scale: Focus on the future
  • Focus Point: Why it happened, what will happen next
  • Emphasis: Judgment
  • Suitable for: Long-term, gradual, multi-factor evolution
  • Typical: Contact degradation, insulation aging

Relationship Between the Two: Risk thinking does not replace fault thinking, but is an upgrade on top of fault thinking

· Without fault detection, there is no way to obtain basic data

· Without risk cognition, there is no way to transform basic data into accident prevention capability

Figure Description：The biggest difference between fault thinking and risk thinking lies in the time scale - the former focuses on the present, the latter on the future. Risk thinking does not replace fault thinking, but is a further upgrade on top of fault thinking.
FIGURE 4-2

Data → Event → State → Risk → Decision Conversion Chain

The Value of Future Systems Lies in Transforming Data into Decisions

Figure 4-2
Five-Stage Conversion Chain from Data to Decision
Data
Data
Raw Sampling
Voltage/Current/Temperature
→
Event
Event
Anomaly Identification
Arc/Temperature Rise/Leakage
→
State
State
State Aggregation
Contact Degradation/Insulation Aging
→
Risk
Risk
Risk Quantification
Risk Index/Hazard Level
→
Decision
Decision
Disposal Recommendation
Power Outage/Maintenance/Observation
See the SiteHigh-Speed Sampling + Feature Extraction
Discover ProblemsThreshold Judgment + Pattern Recognition
Understand ProblemsMulti-Event Correlation + Time Series Analysis
Quantify ProblemsMulti-Dimensional Weighting + Scenario Model
Solve ProblemsRisk Level + O&M Rules
Figure Description：The value of future systems lies not in collecting more data, but in transforming data into events, events into states, states into risks, and risks into decisions. Each layer of conversion requires corresponding methodological support - from high-speed sampling to threshold judgment, from multi-event correlation to multi-dimensional weighting, ultimately forming executable disposal recommendations.
KEY JUDGMENTS

Core Insights

Fire is not a single point, but a chain.
Accidents are results, hazards are processes, risks are the essence.
In a normal circuit, copper conducts electricity; in an arc fault, air conducts electricity.
The greatest significance of an arc lies not in what it burns, but in what it reveals.
AFDD acts on the arc exposure layer, while risk intelligence acts on the full chain.
Detection capability is the foundation, but cognitive capability is the barrier.
The next-generation electrical safety system is essentially the "digital doctor" of electrical safety.
ABOUT

About FEXLINK

FEXLINK the Power.

Brand Definition: FEXLINK, a company that produces data

Brand Overall Definition

FEXLINK is a digital energy data company that takes multi-dimensional electrical feature sensing as its entry point, four-dimensional data calibration and model algorithms as its core, and transforms power operation states intocomputable, decisionable, early-warning-capable, and energy-efficiency-and-safety-value-improvablevalue-added data assets.

FEXLINK is not a pure device company, nor a traditional software company, but a digital energy company that captures industry sensing data through precise sensing technology, discovers inherent electrical signal systems, continuously generates high-value data, and transforms data into value-added data products.

Brand Main Narrative

Electrical Signal
Power
→
Data
Data
→
Intelligence
Intelligence
→
Value
Value

Electricity Generates Data · Data Forms Intelligence · Intelligence Creates Value

Power Creates Data · Data Creates Intelligence · Intelligence Creates Value

This is the main thread of all FEXLINK brand expressions, and the underlying logic of the technical roadmap in this whitepaper -From electrical signals to data, from data to intelligence, from intelligence to safety value。

Mission and Positioning

Mission · Mission
Reconstruct energy efficiency with data
Position · Position
Precise sensing IoT intelligent control system

SLCIE Capability Model

The FEXLINK brand capability model consists of five core dimensions, forming a complete data value loop:

S
Sense · Sensing
Sense energy electrical feature states
L
Link · Connection
Connect devices and data
C
Compute · Computing
Compute multi-dimensional features
I
Intelligence · Intelligence
Form intelligent judgments
E
Evolution · Evolution
Continuously optimize and evolve

FEXLINK · Energy Data Connection Capability

FEXLINK is not an ordinary product name, but a complete brand concept representing FEXLINK's energy data connection capability:

F
Fast - Rapid Response · Flow - Data Flow · Future - Forward-Looking
EX
Energy Exchange - Energy Exchange · Energy X - Infinite Energy Possibilities · Electrical Extension - Electrical Capability Extension
LINK
Link Energy - Connect Energy · Link Data - Connect Data · Link Intelligence - Connect Intelligence · Link Ecosystem - Connect Ecosystem

Relationship Between Technology and This Whitepaper

The RHAF model and five-level capability system proposed in this whitepaper are the concrete implementation of FEXLINK's SLCIE capability model in the electrical safety domain -Sense corresponds to Level 1, Compute corresponds to Level 2-3, Intelligence corresponds to Level 4-5. FEXLINK is not a pure arc fault detection equipment supplier, but arisk intelligence data company facing the complete RHAF risk chain。

Key Points

  • Definition： The "White Paper on Arc Fault and Electrical Fire Risk Cognition" is a systematic technical white paper published by FEXLINK, building a risk cognition system for arc faults and electrical fires through the five-generation evolution of electrical safety, the RHAF four-layer model, the five-level capability model, the risk evolution chain, and the data→event→state→risk→decision conversion chain.
  • Core Principle： The white paper proposes the RHAF (Recognize-Hypothesize-Analyze-Forecast) four-layer risk cognition model, combined with the five-level capability pyramid (Sense/Compute/Intelligence/Decision/Action). Through the data→event→state→risk→decision conversion chain, it enables a paradigm shift from passive detection to proactive risk prediction.
  • Scenarios： Suitable for hospitals, hazardous chemical warehousing, commercial complexes, high-rise buildings, data centers and other highly electrical-safety-sensitive sites. It can serve as a reference for electrical Fire Risk assessment, AFCD selection, predictive maintenance system design, and regulatory compliance.
  • FEXLINK Capabilities： Based on the SLCIE capability model (Sense/Compute/Intelligence), FEXLINK provides the ESA Electrical Safety Monitoring Terminal, ESE Power Quality Monitor, ESF Electrical Fire Controller, CX Edge Computing Gateway and FEXLINK Cloud "Qianzhi Engine". It implements the RHAF risk cognition system, positioning itself as a risk intelligence data company covering the complete RHAF risk chain.

Frequently Asked Questions

Knowledge FAQ

What is White Paper on Arc Fault and Electrical Fire Risk Cognition?

The "White Paper on Arc Fault and Electrical Fire Risk Cognition" is a systematic technical white paper published by FEXLINK, building a risk cognition system for arc faults and electrical fires through the five-generation evolution of electrical safety, the RHAF four-layer model, the five-level capability model, the risk evolution chain, and the data→event→state→risk→decision conversion chain.

What is the core principle of White Paper on Arc Fault and Electrical Fire Risk Cognition?

The white paper proposes the RHAF (Recognize-Hypothesize-Analyze-Forecast) four-layer risk cognition model, combined with the five-level capability pyramid (Sense/Compute/Intelligence/Decision/Action). Through the data→event→state→risk→decision conversion chain, it enables a paradigm shift from passive detection to proactive risk prediction.

What scenarios does White Paper on Arc Fault and Electrical Fire Risk Cognition apply to?

Suitable for hospitals, hazardous chemical warehousing, commercial complexes, high-rise buildings, data centers and other highly electrical-safety-sensitive sites. It can serve as a reference for electrical Fire Risk assessment, AFCD selection, predictive maintenance system design, and regulatory compliance.

What are the engineering best practices for White Paper on Arc Fault and Electrical Fire Risk Cognition?

Engineering essentials: deploy sensing and computing capabilities in layers per the RHAF model; assess current system maturity using the five-level capability model; use 256-point/cycle high-frequency sampling to capture arc characteristics; combine 408 national-standard AI red-line rules for hazard identification; build a data-to-decision closed loop supporting early warning and precise assessment.

What are FEXLINK's capabilities in White Paper on Arc Fault and Electrical Fire Risk Cognition?

Based on the SLCIE capability model (Sense/Compute/Intelligence), FEXLINK provides the ESA Electrical Safety Monitoring Terminal, ESE Power Quality Monitor, ESF Electrical Fire Controller, CX Edge Computing Gateway and FEXLINK Cloud "Qianzhi Engine". It implements the RHAF risk cognition system, positioning itself as a risk intelligence data company covering the complete RHAF risk chain.

FEXLINK Business Scope

FEXLINK specializes in smart lightning protection and electrical safety, offering a product portfolio covering lightning protection, lightning online monitoring, lightning protection online monitoring, lightning arrester, intelligent lightning arrester, lightning arrester monitoring, grounding resistance, grounding monitoring for smart lightning protection scenarios, while addressing digital distribution, smart distribution, electricity meter, carbon neutral, industrial internet, carbon asset for digital business, helping enterprises achieve safe, efficient and low-carbon energy management.